Trying to save money for your company? Our latest macro forecast will give you an edge by shedding light on how things are shaping up for 2017 and into 2018. This article should be helpful to both Corporations and Investors/Users looking to make thoughtful and calculated real estate decisions over the next 12-18 months.
Cushman & Wakefield published the U.S. Macro Forecast this month with promising news. Many key factors in the overall health of our economy are pointing to U.S. GDP growth accelerating. As an intelligent tenant, I always recommend you meet with a broker at least 12-14 months prior to your lease expiration. In today’s climate you can expect to find fewer options available to you, rents that are higher than what you are currently paying and longer term requirements from landlords, 3-5 years at a minimum.
DTZ hosted our annual State of Real Estate event in San Francisco again this year. Chief Economist, Kevin Thorpe, shared his research, data and forecast for 2015 both nationally and for Northern California.
For many of us, 2013 ended up closing with less than stellar results. Will 2014 be a better year? We share our perspective on why 2014 may be a better year for the commercial real estate market.
According to Kevin Thorpe, Cassidy Turley’s Chief Economist, office vacancy across the U.S. is “clearly tightening, but at a rate that is much slower than past recoveries. Steady job growth and lack of new development has vacancy falling in 70% of the country, but the office sector is still adjusting to the new era of tenant downsizing and space efficiency.” We anticipate tenant activity levels will pick up in 2014 over 2013 but like our economist notes, we have the trends of downsizing and space efficiency keeping our growth down to a moderate pace. This post covers some of the stats for 2013 for the Bay Area Commercial Real Estate market.
Currently I have been working on several purchase requirements and as I read a recent article from our Research Director I found it very relevant. In the article, Garrick Brown discusses some of what is happening in the investment markets. I would agree that investors are both looking for yield but they are also still very adverse to risk. This is still creating a lot of demand for core assets. If you are willing to take risk then you’ll look outside of the core to increase your yield but if you are not willing to take risk then it can be difficult to achieve an acceptable return. For a good read on some current trends in the investment market, read the enclosed article on Searching for Yield…
Companies expect more from open-plan offices – more teamwork, productivity, and satisfaction. Do they get it? Read more in my post on the trends of moving toward and open-plan and shared spaces and how it mimics what corporations are doing with their office space. Is it a trend or the new standard, see what is involved in that decision…
Demand for office space surged in the fourth quarter of 2012 posting the strongest quarter of demand for office space since pre-recession 2007. The job numbers have been healthy for quite some time but it wasn’t till the fourth quarter did we see the demand play out. Given the fiscal cliff scenario, the fear of a relapse into recession may be behind us. Asking rents rose 1% when compared to Q4 2011. While this is still a tenant’s market, vacancy is eroding. We estimate that we still need to decrease another 200 bsp before landlords can really push rents. The national rent growth is being pushed by a hand full of West Coast, tech-driven markets as well as the New York City market. Furthermore, we are seing companies functioning on less space per employee. That number has declined from 225sf to 176sf per person in 2012. We estimate that this could fall to as little as 151sf per person by 2017.
On Friday December 14th, Cassidy Turley released research examining the impending “fiscal cliff’s” impact on commercial real estate markets across the country. In this post, the fiscal cliff is defined and several scenarios are discussed. We also take our market research platform and discuss the impact to 30 different markets across the country. You can download the report by following the link or you can read the summary in this post. As always, let me know if you have any questions or comments.