US Macro Forecast May 2017May 15, 2017
Despite an intense domestic political environment, the U.S. economy and the property markets continue to perform well. Real GDP growth, while weak in Q1 2017 (as is usual for a first quarter in this expansion), is already tracking much stronger for Q2 2017, currently in the 3-4% range. Other data confirm a similarly stronger trajectory. Most notably, consumer and business confidence remains high, job growth remains steadfast and healthy, and wage growth is finally accelerating to the point where the virtuous cycle is within reach. Global growth is also improving. U.S. exports recently jumped to their strongest level in five years. On many fronts, the U.S. economy looks as solid as it has been at any other point in this 7.5-year-long expansion.